Unfortunately, Ali Soufan was right. One year ago, shortly after the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the start of Israel’s military response, Soufan speak to me that these events “ushered in a new era of chaos for the region.” The aftermath has seen the displacement of millions of Gazans, the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, a ceasefire in Lebanon and the overthrow of the former Syrian dictator. Bashar al Assad.
Yet for all the death and destruction, much remains unresolved – and the imminent return of Donald Trump entering the White House adds another wildcard. Soufan has worked in the area for decades. As an FBI agent, he came closer than anyone else to stopping the 9/11 attacks. Now, Soufan leads his own security consulting agency, where he facilitates delicate hostage negotiations abroad.
Between flights to the Middle East, Soufan spoke with Vanity fair about everything from the nature of the victorious rebel group in Syria (“They continue to be a terrorist organization until proven otherwise”), to how powerful it is. Marco Rubio could take on Trump’s role as secretary of state (“I believe everything will be run directly by the White House”), in the face of broader conflicts escalating across the Middle East. “There’s a lot going on right now,” Soufan said softly. “The situation in the area is really scary.”
Vanity Fair: No one could have predicted exactly how things would unfold over the past year. But you are an expert in the area. Did any of the ramifications surprise you?
Ali Soufan: We always knew that something big would happen in Syria after October 7 and after the weakening of Iran’s main proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. Türkiye quickly filled the void left by Tehran and expanded its influence. But I don’t think even the Turks believed that the Assad regime would fall so quickly.
Israeli hostages remain a major problem. On Monday, president-elect Donald Trump threatened Hamas, saying “all hell will break loose” if the hostages are not released by January 20. Is that helpful, or is he being pretend in case they are released sooner, so Trump can claim credit for scaring them into a deal?
I think it’s just talk and I think it comes from the fact that the situation could have been resolved before he took office. CIA director goes to Qatar [on Wednesday]. What Trump says doesn’t have much effect on what’s going on in the negotiations. If you were Hamas, what else could have happened? The situation in Gaza is completely chaotic. They are living in the deepest hell. I have a positive feeling about the outcome of this negotiation.
Even if that part of the puzzle is resolved, however, Trump will face a volatile region. You have been working in the field of counterterrorism for a long time. What are the biggest risks from the new instability?
I think Türkiye will carry out some military operations against the Kurds [in northern Syria]because they consider the Syrian Democratic Forces, led by Kurds, to be a terrorist organization on the Turkish border. If Türkiye’s operation is successful, what will happen to the hundreds of IS fighters being held by the Kurds? It could be similar to what happened in Iraq, when IS declared an Islamic state. The situation will be very dangerous not only for Syria but also for Türkiye and the international community, including the United States.
Trump always talks like an isolationist, about taking care of America and letting other countries figure it out themselves.
