Will Trudeau resign? Four paths the Canadian Prime Minister can take

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future appears uncertain following the sudden resignation of his most senior cabinet member, a once-close ally.

Chrystia Freeland — a former deputy prime minister and finance minister — resigned Monday with an open letter to Trudeau, in which she outlined her disagreements with him over spending and “the best path forward.” first for Canada”.

These disagreements, she said, are accentuated by the threat of tariffs on Canadian goods from incoming U.S. President Donald Trump – tariffs that economists say could deal Canada an economic blow. cruel economy.

Questions are now being raised on Parliament Hill, including by some members of his Liberal Party, about whether he can lead at this critical time.

He faces some choices about how to move forward.

Trudeau has been the leader of the Canadian Liberal Party since 2013 and served as Canada’s prime minister for more than 9 years, since 2015.

According to the party’s constitution, the leader can submit his resignation at any time. If it takes effect immediately, an interim leader will be appointed until party members can convene and vote on a new permanent leader.

Trudeau could also choose to stay in his position until a new leader is elected.

Once a new leader is appointed, Trudeau will have to relinquish his prime ministerial powers and hand them over to his successor.

Trudeau has shown no signs that he will voluntarily resign anytime soon.

In an emergency meeting with his caucus following Freeland’s departure, Trudeau told Liberal MPs – including some who had directly called for his resignation – that he will take time to reflect, according to multiple reports.

And in a holiday speech to Liberal faithful on Tuesday, he acknowledged politics has “big challenges” but said: “In difficult times, it is not time to stop. It’s time to be ambitious and bold.”

Trudeau has been under pressure since the summer, as his approval ratings plummeted and a series of special election defeats in once-safe Liberal seats suggested major troubles for the his party.

In October, he faced a small caucus revolt, with 24 MPs signing a letter calling for his departure.

Polls show that if the Canadian federal election were held today, the official opposition Conservative Party would win decisively.

Trudeau remained in office despite these troubles and repeatedly vowed to run again as leader of the Liberal Party in the next election.

So far, only 13 of 153 Liberal MPs have publicly called for his resignation – nearly half of whom do not want to run for re-election, according to CBC News tracking.

However, according to the party’s constitution, the leadership position can only be officially put to a vote by members after losing an election.

High in opinion polls with a double-digit lead, the Conservative Party has been trying for months to force an election by tableing a series of votes of no confidence in the House of Commons.

If a government fails a confidence motion or vote in the House of Commons, it must resign or seek to dissolve parliament, leading to a federal election.

The government needs the support of a majority of the 338 members of parliament in a vote of no confidence. The Liberal Party is 17 seats behind that number.

The Conservatives’ efforts failed after the NDP or Bloc Québécois backed the Liberals in exchange for support in promoting their respective political priorities.

With parliament adjourning for the holiday on Tuesday, Trudeau will not face the threat of another confidence motion until at least the end of January.

On Monday, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh called for Trudeau’s resignation for the first time, leaving the Liberal Party’s hold on power increasingly shaky.

The NDP’s House leader told broadcaster CBC that their members would vote in favor of a motion of no confidence if the prime minister remains leader in the new year.

One way Trudeau could avoid a vote is to recall parliament – essentially a suspension that stops all proceedings, including debates and votes, without dissolving parliament.

Although a routine part of parliamentary procedure, it is sometimes used by governments to buy time during political crises.

Trudeau last prorogued Parliament in August 2020, when his government was facing an ethics scandal over its handling of a contract with a charity.

It was also used to avoid a vote of no confidence by Trudeau’s predecessor, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who prorogued parliament in December 2008 as federal opposition parties sought to form a coalition government.

Parliament returned in January 2009. By then the coalition had dissolved, with Harper still in power.

Whatever Trudeau decides to do, an election in the coming months is inevitable.

Canada must hold its next election on or before October, and in the end, voters could be the ones to decide his future.