As Syrians jubilantly celebrated the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad this week, dire warnings spread on Arab social media: that this moment of joy could lead to a future gloomy hybrid.
The end of Assad’s reign at the hands of the armed Islamist group formerly linked to al-Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has raised alarm even among well-informed Arabs. about the bloody record of the Assad regime.
“Those who are optimistic about Syria’s future, haven’t they been with us for the past 14 years?” Ezzedine Fishere, an Egyptian political science professor at Dartmouth College in the US, wrote on Facebook.
Another Egyptian social media user posted: “Isn’t that what happened in Iraq and then the Arab uprisings? [of 2011] Enough to be afraid of what is about to happen?”
In 2011, a wave of popular uprisings swept across the Arab world, toppling dictators in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia and raising hopes for democratic government and economic prosperity – hopes Hopes were later shattered by new authoritarian regimes or civil wars. The uprising in Syria began at the same time, but the government only collapsed 13 years later.
Zaina Erhaim, a Syrian journalist who moved to London in 2017, said the warnings she received from Tunisian and Egyptian friends were “simplistic and did not take into account the Syrian context. It was as if they were saying: ‘Those poor people are happy but they don’t know what awaits them’.”
“I’m a little hopeful,” she said. “We Syrians are more aware of our own failures than the failures of others. I hope we will learn not only from the lessons of others but also from our own experiences.”
For Syrians, this is a time of fierce hope, even if it is tinged with apprehension. Many Syrians are experiencing the same elation as others in the region when they shook off their oppressors in 2011.
When Hosni Mubarak, the dictator who ruled Egypt for 30 years, resigned in 2011 after 18 days of peaceful protests, ecstatic crowds poured into Cairo’s Tahrir Square, chanting: “Raise your heads high, you are Egyptian.”
The Muslim Brotherhood subsequently won parliamentary elections and in 2012, Mohamed Morsi, one of the group’s leaders, was elected president with a slim majority. His brief rule alienated many people, including pro-revolutionary groups. Secular parties, Mubarak-era elites and a range of Egyptians wary of an Islamist resurgence have agitated against his rule.
That gave Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, then defense minister and now president, the opportunity to oust Morsi in a 2013 coup with widespread popular support. Since then, Egypt’s democratic experiment has been limited, protests banned and there has been little space for dissent.
Hisham Kassem, an Egyptian publisher and critic of the Sisi regime, said the transition failed because Islamists “tried to control the situation and the economy was not taken seriously.”
“The military has been on the sidelines and not really prepared to give up power, but the failure is largely due to the poor performance of the country’s political forces,” he said.
After its own uprising, Tunisia’s fledgling democracy survived for a decade, but collapsed when Kais Saied, a democratically elected populist president, in 2021 closed opened parliament, rewrote the constitution to concentrate power in his own hands, and began jailing critics.
The autocratic change was welcomed by Tunisians fed up with chaotic politics, falling living standards and ineffective government. In October, Saied won the latest presidential election with 90% of the vote after jailing two more credible candidates who were allowed to run against him.
Olfa Lamloum, a political scientist in Tunis, said the lesson from Tunisia is that “democratic freedoms cannot exist without the basics of a dignified life.
“The protests of the past 10 years by the unemployed and others have been about economic and social rights,” she said. “People must see that their lives are changing for the better.”
After the Libyan uprising that toppled Muamer Gaddafi in 2011, the country was divided under two rival governments. They had a civil war in 2019, with Russia and regional powers arming and supporting different sides.
Since then, rival ruling elites have accepted an unusual coexistence, financing themselves by siphoning off Libya’s oil revenues.
Syria’s trajectory seems unlikely to replicate the steps of other so-called “Arab Spring” countries, analysts say. Its fragmentation under different armed rebel groups, coupled with the diversity of minority groups, means the challenges will vary.
Additionally, the fall of the Assad regime also followed a 13-year civil war in which half a million people were killed, mostly by the regime, and millions became refugees.
Assad’s brutal repression of peaceful protests in 2011 turned the Syrian revolution into an armed uprising in which Islamist factions eventually became the most powerful groups. Assad invited foreign allies: first Iran and Iran-backed militants including Hizbollah, then Russia, whose air force bombed rebel-held areas.
After the fall of Assad, IS still had cells operating in many regions of Syria; The US-backed Kurds have established an autonomous region in the northeast; and Türkiye, which controls parts of northern Syria, backs other rebels to control Kurdish rebels. Ankara views Syrian Kurdish rebels as an extension of the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, which has fought the Turkish state for four decades.
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of the Sunni HTS, has sought to portray himself as a moderate Muslim who will not trample on the rights of minorities in Syria, including Islamists. Christians and Alawites, who formed the foundation of the Assad regime. Assad’s family is Alawite, a branch of Shia Islam.
But he has not promised a democracy or outlined a vision for the future, while the US has designated both him and his group as terrorists.
Yassin Haj Saleh, a Syrian writer and dissident who served 16 years in prison, wrote on Facebook that the “new Syria” cannot be a state “ruled by the Islamist Assad.” Sunni line. . . in which people remain religious without political rights and public freedoms, including freedom of religious belief.”
There are also concerns that Jolani may fail to unite the country, leaving rebel groups vying for spoils from the Assad regime, fueling conflict and attracting foreign intervention.
Paul Salem, vice president of the Middle East Institute in Washington, said that although Syria’s future may be “bumpy”, it is a positive sign that the Syrian state has not disintegrated, unlike the Libyan state. after the fall of Gaddafi.
“It should also be noted that opposition forces are protecting all government offices, all public institutions. They did not attack any of them,” he said.
Salem said Syria’s neighbors including Türkiye “are not interested in a failed state” on their doorstep. While the presence of US-backed Kurdish fighters and the autonomous Kurdish region could become a problem, it could be resolved with “good diplomacy between Washington and Ankara,” he said. .
“Certainly removing a tyrant, while welcomed and celebrated, is very different from actually having a transition to something better,” Salem said.
“But in the case of Syria [because of] the utter brutality of the Assad regime, you cannot blame the Syrians. He has to go.”
