Trump says Syria ‘is not our fight’ Outside may not be so easy

As Donald Trump sat with world leaders in Paris last weekend to marvel at the restored Notre Dame cathedral, armed Islamist militants in Syria drove in jeeps on their way to Damascus to complete the overthrow of the Assad regime.

In this split-screen moment of global news, the US president-elect, seated between the French first ladies, kept an eye on the startling developments in the Middle East.

“Syria is a mess, but not our friend,” he posted the same day on his social network Truth.

He added: “THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR WAR. LET IT PLAY OUT. DON’T GET INVOLVED!”

This post and another the next day were reminders of the president-elect’s powerful order not to interfere in foreign policy.

It also raises big questions about what happens next: Given the way the war has drawn in and influenced regional and global powers, is Trump really “out of it?” to Syria when President Bashar al-Assad’s government has collapsed?

Will Trump withdraw US troops?

Are his policies significantly different from those of President Biden, and if so, what will the White House do in the five weeks before Trump takes over?

The current administration is engaged in a frantic round of diplomacy in response to the fall of Assad and the rise to power of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Syrian Islamist armed group that the United States considers a terrorist organization. terrorism.

I am writing this on Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s plane, as he shuttles between Jordan and Türkiye to try to convince key Arab and Muslim countries in the region to support a set of conditions that Washington is setting out to recognize the Syrian government in the future.

The US says the country must be transparent and comprehensive, must not become a “terrorist base”, must not threaten Syria’s neighbors and must destroy all stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons.

For Mike Waltz, Trump’s nominee for national security adviser who has yet to be confirmed, there is a guiding principle in his foreign policy.

“President Trump was elected with an overwhelming mandate to not let the United States get bogged down in any more wars in the Middle East,” he told Fox News this week.

He went on to list America’s “core interests” there as the Islamic State (IS) group, Israel and “our Gulf Arab allies.”

Waltz’s comments are a succinct summary of Trump’s views on Syria as a small piece of his larger regional policy puzzle.

His goal is to ensure that the remnants of IS remain contained and to ensure that a future government in Damascus cannot threaten Washington’s most important regional ally, Israel.

Trump is also focused on what he sees as the biggest prize: a historic diplomatic and trade deal to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which he believes will weaken and humiliate Iran more.

Trump believes the rest is Syria’s “mess” that need to be sorted out.

Trump’s rhetoric is reminiscent of how he spoke about Syria during his first term, when he derided the country – which has an extraordinary cultural history dating back millennia – as a land of “sand and death”. “Dear”.

“Donald Trump himself, I think,” said Robert Ford, who served as President Barack Obama’s ambassador to Syria from 2011-2014, and who argued within that administration for more U.S. intervention. really didn’t want to have much to do with Syria during his first administration.” in the form of supporting moderate opposition groups in Syria to resist Assad’s brutal repression of his people.

“But there are others in his group who are more concerned with counter-terrorism,” he told the BBC.

The US currently has about 900 troops in Syria east of the Euphrates River and in a 55-kilometer “deconfliction zone” bordering Iraq and Jordan.

Their official mission is to fight the now much-depleted IS group in desert camps, while also training and equipping the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF – controlled by the US’s Kurdish and Arab allies). territory).

The SDF also protects camps housing IS fighters and their families.

In fact, America’s presence on the ground goes far beyond this, helping to block a potential arms transit route to Iran, which uses Syria to supply its ally Hezbollah.

Mr. Ford, like other analysts, believes that while Trump’s isolationist instincts play well on social media, the actual reality and views of his own team are likely to be soften his stance.

That view is echoed by Wa’el Alzayat, former adviser on Syria at the US State Department.

“He is bringing some serious people into his administration who will run his Middle East file,” he told the BBC, noting in particular that Senator Marco Rubio, who has been nominated appointed as foreign minister, “is a person with an important role in foreign policy”. “.

These tensions – between isolationist ideals and regional goals – also came to a head during his first term, when Trump withdrew remaining CIA funding from a number of “moderate” rebels. peace” and ordered the withdrawal of US forces from northern Syria in 2019.

At the time, Waltz called the move “a strategic mistake” and, fearing an IS resurgence, Trump officials partly overruled his decision.

Trump also deviated from his ideal of non-intervention by launching 59 cruise missiles at a Syrian airport, after Assad allegedly ordered a chemical weapons attack that killed many civilians on year 2017.

He also doubled sanctions against Syria’s leadership.

The blurred lines of Trump’s “this is not our war” pledge were summarized by Waltz.

“That doesn’t mean he’s not fully willing to intervene,” he told Fox News.

“President Trump has no problem taking decisive action if the American homeland is threatened in any way.”

Adding to the potential for tension is another key figure, Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s nominee to be director of national intelligence. The controversial former Democratic Party ally turned Trump ally met Assad in 2017 on a “fact-finding” trip and at the time criticized Trump’s policies.

Her nomination is likely to come under scrutiny from US senators amid accusations – which she has denied – of being an apologist for Assad and Russia.

The anxiety about the continuing mission in Syria and the desire to possibly end it is not unique to Trump.

In January, three US soldiers were killed at a US base in Jordan in a drone attack by Iran-backed militias operating in Syria and Iraq, as the Israel war -Hamas in Gaza risks spreading further in the region.

This and other attacks have continued to raise questions for the Biden administration about the level of US forces and its presence in the region.

In fact, many of the outgoing Biden administration’s and the outgoing Trump administration’s positions on Syria are more consistent than different.

Despite obvious differences in tone and tone, both leaders want Damascus to be run by a government consistent with American interests.

Both Biden and Trump want to continue the humiliation of Iran and Russia in Syria.

The line “this is not our war, let it play out” is equivalent to the Biden administration saying “this is a process that needs to be led by the Syrians, not by the United States”.

But the “big” difference and what worries Biden’s supporters most is in Trump’s approach to US ground forces and US support for the SDF, said Bassam Barabandi, former Syrian diplomat in Washington, who helped opposition figures escape, said. Assad regime.

“Biden has more empathy, connection and passion for [the Kurds]. Historically, he was one of the first senators to visit the Kurdish region [of northern Iraq] after Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait,” he said.

“Trump and his people they don’t care much… they consider not eliminating their allies, they understand this, [but] The way they do it is different.”

Mr. Barabandi, who said he supports Trump’s non-intervention position, said that the president-elect will “definitely” withdraw US troops, but in a gradual time frame and with a clear plan.

“Within 24 hours, it won’t be like Afghanistan,” he said. “He would say six months, or whatever, the deadline for that and get everything sorted.”

Much may hinge on Trump’s discussions with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with whom he is said to have a close relationship.

US support for the SDF has long been a source of tension with Türkiye, which views the People’s Defense Units (YPG) – the Kurdish force that forms the SDF’s military backbone – as a terrorist organization.

Since Assad’s fall, Türkiye has launched air strikes to force Kurdish fighters out of strategic areas, including the town of Manbij.

Trump may want to strike a deal with his friend in Ankara that would allow him to withdraw American troops and possibly see Türkiye’s hand grow even stronger.

But the possibility of Turkish-backed groups taking control of some areas worries many people, including Wa’el Alzayat, a former Syria expert for the US State Department.

“You cannot have different groups running different parts of the country, controlling different resources,” he added.

“There could be a political process where I think America has a role or something else and I hope they avoid that second scenario.”