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Thirteen years after children scribbled anti-regime slogans in the southern city of Deraa, sparking revolution in Syria, Bashar al-Assad and his autocratic family have fallen. The end of a dynasty that brutalized and plundered one of the Arab world’s most important countries for more than five decades will be remembered by hundreds of thousands of families of the killed, maimed, imprisoned Assads. prison and disappeared to celebrate. The regime’s extraordinary collapse also marks a watershed moment in the Middle East: Syria is both Russia’s most important ally and Iran’s most important ally in the region. the the end of Assad confirms the change in the regional balance of power. Tehran and its proxies are increasingly weakened and Russia’s influence is waning.
Since the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, old certainties across the region have been upended, the political cards shuffled. The Middle East rises from the ruins of yesteryear conflict and the carnage, however, is still not sure. Much will depend on the ruler Syria after Assad. The only clear winner after Assad’s ouster is Türkiye. main supporter of Syrian rebels. The Sunni Arab states of the Gulf recently returned to support the Syrian dictator, bringing him back into the fold of the Arab world. For them as for Israel, the prospect of an Islamist-led government in Damascus would be unwelcome.
The long-forgotten war in Syria awaken by a combination of factors: Assad only prevailed over a collection of rebel factions because Russian support and Lebanon’s Hizbollah. It was Russia’s air force and Hizbollah fighters on the ground that turned the war in his favor. With Moscow distracted by the invasion of Ukraine And Hizbollah devastated in recent months by the conflict with Israel, the rebels have found a favorable moment to strike. The Syrian army was devastated to the point within a few days Jihadist HTS, the most well-armed and motivated rebel faction, has taken control of government-held cities and is reaching the capital Damascus. Perhaps there was some agreement, a sign of how broken the Assad system was.
For many Syrians, this is one moment of joy. Rebels have opened prisons, reuniting families with long-lost loved ones in Assad’s torture dungeons. Of the more than 5 million Syrian refugees who fled the war, many now hope they can return to the homes they once despaired of ever seeing again.
But what happens next will depend on HTS. The group has sought to present itself as a reformist jihadist organization, its leader said Abu Mohammad al-Jolaniwho was once a member of Isis and al-Qaeda, styled himself as a politician. He has promised to treat Syria’s Christian and Kurdish minorities with dignity, and even the Alawi minority from which the Assad family comes. Many still fear Islamists will instigate revenge or impose their own religious dictatorship. Already, HTS has been vocal about protecting state institutions, indicating it wants an orderly transition.
Syria now faces two possible paths. The first is the outbreak of civil war, which will take the country down the path of Yemen and Libya, countries that have long since failed and broken down. The second is stability, the chance to heal and bring home the millions of refugees scattered around the world. To seize the opportunity of a more hopeful Syria, those who can influence Jolani – Türkiye and perhaps Qatar – must ensure that he leaves governance of the country to a reactionary civilian administration. reflects the countless religious communities in Syria. That would allow Arab and Western governments to designate HTS as a terrorist organization that could cooperate with the government. The world has failed Syria again and again, even as Assad used chemical weapons against his own people. Now, they also have the opportunity to help the country get back on its feet.
