Nuclear giant Orano lost control of its uranium operations to the government

In the latest sign that relations are seriously deteriorating, Niger’s military rulers appear increasingly determined to push France out of any significant sector of their economy – and especially is uranium mining.

This week, French state nuclear company Orano announced that the junta – which deposed French ally President Mohamed Bazoum in a coup in July 2023 – had taken control of its operations. local mining company, Somaïr.

The company’s efforts to resume exports for months have been blocked by authorities and the company is being pushed into a financial crisis.

And the impact could be felt more widely – although Niger accounts for less than 5% of uranium produced globally, by 2022 it will account for a quarter of supplies to nuclear power plants across the world. throughout Europe.

So the timing could hardly be more awkward, as Western countries struggle to meet the challenge of climate change and cut carbon emissions from electricity generation.

For French President Emmanuel Macron, who is grappling with a political crisis at home, Orano’s departure from Niger is certainly visually awkward.

Because it coincided with harsh news from other long-time African partners – Chad unexpectedly announced the end of its defense agreement with Paris, while Senegal insisted on eventually closing its base. French military base in Dakar.

But in any case, the crisis facing Orano in Niger represents a significant practical challenge to France’s energy supply.

With 18 nuclear plants, a total of 56 reactors, generating nearly 65% ​​of electricity output, France is ahead of the game in limiting carbon emissions from the power sector.

But the country’s limited uranium production ended more than 20 years ago.

So, over the past decade or so, the country has imported nearly 90,000 tons – a fifth of which came from Niger. Only Kazakhstan – which accounts for 45% of global production – is a more important source of supply.

Continued paralysis or the definitive closure of Orano’s operations in Niger will certainly force France to look elsewhere.

This can be achieved because alternative supplies can be sourced from countries including Uzbekistan, Australia and Namibia.

Last year, when West African neighbors responded to the coup in Niger by imposing a trade blockade that crippled uranium exports, other suppliers were ready to step in.

European Union imports of minerals from the country fell by a third, but were largely replaced by Canada.

But there is also a difficult political price to pay. EU uranium imports from Russia have increased by more than 70%, despite heavy sanctions imposed on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.

And of course, it is Russia that has become the new best friend of the military leaders who have held power in Niger and its allied neighbors Burkina Faso and Mali since 2020.

Russian military contractors fight alongside the Malian army in the campaign against jihadists and ethnic Tuareg separatists, and they also help protect senior government leadership in Niger and Burkina Faso.

So while France and Europe in general can find a way to cope with Niger’s inevitable loss of uranium supplies, the change will not be entirely comfortable.

At least in the short term, EU nations are likely to become more dependent on Russia and its Central Asian neighbors, thereby weakening their own efforts to maintain economic pressure on President Vladimir Putin. in what could be a crucial period in the Ukraine crisis.

Furthermore, the Nigerien regime, whose attitude towards the EU as a whole has become as distrustful as its fractious relationship with France, continues to seek alternatives to old partnerships with the West.

And Iran – of course a potential customer for uranium – has emerged as an option.

The connection between the two governments deepened when Niger Prime Minister Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine visited Tehran in January. Rumors of a possible deal to supply “yellow cake” (concentrated) uranium had spread. for a short time a few months ago.

Meanwhile, the prospects for Orano’s hopes of restoring normal operations and exporting uranium from Niger appear dim due to the hostility of the military regime in Niamey.

That antipathy is partly explained by Macron’s vocal condemnation of the July 2023 ouster of Bazoum, who had been one of his closest African political and security partners.

Paris firmly endorses the tough stance of the West African regional group Ecowas, and there are even rumors that it may be ready to provide covert support if the bloc carries out its short-term threat of military intervention. into Niger to recover Bazoum.

In this toxic atmosphere of hostility and mistrust, Orano was an obvious convenient target for government retaliation.

The French company’s dominant role in the uranium sector has for years caused outrage among many Nigerians, amid claims that the French company is buying their uranium cheaply, despite negotiations. periodically renegotiate export agreements. Although mining operations only began many years after independence, they are seen as symbols of France’s ongoing post-colonial influence.

After last year’s coup, Orano himself tried to stay out of the diplomatic row, keeping quiet and continuing to operate normally.

But the Ecowas trade blockade has prevented the country from exporting products from the Somaïr mine, near Arlit, in the Sahara desert.

And even after sanctions were lifted at the end of February, the usual uranium export route through the Benin port of Cotonou remained blocked because authorities had closed the border in an ongoing political row with Benin.

Orano offered to release the uranium, but the regime rejected the offer.

In June, the authorities canceled the French company’s right to develop a new mine at the large Imouraren mine, which had been considered the main new hope for the future development of the uranium industry.

Meanwhile, the export blockage has pushed Somaïr, whose 1,150 tonnes of uranium concentrate worth $210m (£165m) was blocked in November, into financial crisis.

And when Orano decided to halt further production and prioritize paying its workforce, relations with the government deteriorated further leading to a near-total breakup this week.

Of course, not only the company but also the entire Nigerian economy pays the price for this situation, with the loss of export income and the risk of hundreds of jobs.

For Arlit and other communities in the northern desert, this would be a devastating blow, despite rumors of revived activity at a Chinese mining project in the region and several partners. Other potential interests in this field.

But the Niger government feels no need to make concessions to Orano because the country is currently buoyed by a surge in oil exports thanks to a new pipeline built by China.

With that financial cushion, the regime appears prepared to bear the crippling cost and possible dismantling of its traditional uranium partnership with France – now its main international rival of this country.

Paul Melly is a consultant for the Africa Program at Chatham House in London.