We are living in an Age of Uncertainty. Not only because of global threats to society, but many people also face unprecedented insecurity on a personal level, especially the younger generation. None of us know what will happen, and we can face it. And that’s the first lesson about making predictions: Don’t make predictions. Meaning, don’t just guess what will happen. Instead of, accept uncertainty and turn it into an opportunity. Here’s how:
Think fast and slow about uncertainty
Uncertainty is “the conscious awareness of ignorance.” It’s a personal relationship with anything we don’t know – we may not know anything about what’s happening at the moment or what will happen in the future. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman has identified two broad ways of thinking; using our quick, unconscious, instinctive reactions or solving a problem slowly and deliberately. Usually, it’s good to think quickly about the future: when we’re driving or choosing a movie to watch. But for big decisions, it’s better to take our time.
Conjuring up possible futures
The first step in thinking slowly about the future is to imagine how things will turn out. Organizations can create scenarios that reflect optimistic and pessimistic outcomes and can use “red team” to deliberately think about what could go wrong. The UK Ministry of Defense even hires science fiction writers to put serious imagination into possible futures.
Personally, you can adopt a “red team mindset,” in which you consciously criticize our standard views, even if you’re the type of person who tends to look on the bright side. Or expect the worst.
The problem with just using words to describe uncertainty
Vague statements about uncertainty are easily misinterpreted. It’s easy to say that something “could” or “might” happen, or even that it’s “likely” to happen. But what do these words really mean? In 1961, the CIA was planning a Bay of Pigs attack on Cuba to overthrow Fidel Castro’s revolutionary government, but the Joint Chiefs of Staff said the chance of success was only 30% – that is, 70% possible. possibility of failure.
This was supposed to be a “fair” opportunity, which they thought would be interpreted as “not so good.” But President Kennedy read the news optimistically and approved the invasion, which was a complete failure and pushed Cuba deeper into Soviet influence.
Putting numbers into our ignorance
Events like the Bay of Pigs disaster have encouraged intelligence agencies to align words with raw numbers. For example, if someone in British intelligence agencies declared a “possible,” This has an official interpretation of having between 55% and 75% chance. A similar scale is used in climate science, where “likely” event means 90 percent to 95 percent.
As individuals, we can try to rank possible futures according to their likelihood, then come up with some rough estimate, saying that getting a particular job is a “2 out of 10” event. With some imagination, we can imagine all the possible trajectories of our future shooting out like spaghetti; and in about 20 percent of these, you will get a job.
What makes a good forecaster?
“Superforecasters” can assess good probabilities for the future, where “good” means (a) they are “calibrated”, so that when they say “70% chance”, those events occur in about 70% of cases and (b) they are “discriminatory,” so the events tend to have a high probability of occurring. They are often open to new knowledge and happy to work in teams, have insight into their own thinking and any biases, and have the humility to admit uncertainty, Admit your mistakes and change your thinking. They are like by Isaiah Berlin the so-called “fox”, ready to adapt to new evidence, instead of the “hedgehog”, stuck in a single way of thinking.
Admit the unknown
Donald Rumsfeld immortalized “the knowns, the unknowns, and the unknowns”—things beyond our imagination and never even thought of. When we acknowledge this possibility, this is called “deep uncertainty,” where we cannot even list possible futures, even with a red team mindset. However, Rumsfeld does not include “unknowns”—the assumptions we make without thinking. These can be the most dangerous delusions and that’s why we need critical friends to help us escape the fixed trams.
Prepare to be amazed
In 1650, Oliver Cromwell’s army was camped outside Edinburgh, and he was trying to persuade the Scottish Kirk to withdraw their support for the return of Charles II. Cromwell wrote, “Is all that you say, therefore, in perfect agreement with the Word of God? I beseech you, in the heart of Christ, consider that perhaps you are mistaken.” This appeal was ignored and Cromwell defeated the Scots at the Battle of Dunbar.
“Cromwell Rules” which means you should think like a fox, and always have the humility to think that you might be mistaken. By accepting only a small probability of being wrong, you can quickly adapt to surprising new information.
The role of luck
Things can go well for you or they can turn out badly, largely due to factors beyond your control, i.e. luck. Philosophers have identified three main types. Luck is made up of: who you were born into, the time and place in history, your parents, your genes, your pre-existing traits, and your early upbringing. This is extremely important—you need to make the best use of the hand you were dealt at birth. Random luck: being in the right place at the right time or the wrong place at the right time. Lucky outcome: how things happened for you at that time.
But not everything is out of your control— “lucky” people take advantage of opportunities, have positive expectations, and are resilient when things go wrong.
Living with uncertainty
Uncertainty is part of being human, and few of us want to know what we will get for Christmas, what the outcome of a recorded football match will be, or even, whether it is possible. When are we going to die? Uncertainty is inevitable, and we can react to the perception of that ignorance in many different ways – we can feel anxious or excited, hopeful or fearful, depending on the situation. depends on our circumstances and our personal tolerance for not knowing.
We cannot avoid uncertainty. But with a little slow thinking, we can embrace it, be humbled by it, and even enjoy it.
