For the past few years, Syria has been in an uneasy stalemate, divided and devastated after more than a decade of civil war, but the front lines are frozen and the worst of the fighting appears to be over.
President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has declared a Pyrrhic victory after brutally suppressing an uprising with military backing from Russia, Iran and Iranian-backed fighters. It regained control of much of the war-torn country, while the remnants of the armed rebellion were pushed back to lands in the north and northwest, existing under patronage and protection. of Türkiye.
But this week, that fragile deadlock was broken when rebels led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham advanced from the group’s stronghold in Idlib province and launched a lightning raid across the country. north against regime forces, entering Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city. By Saturday, they were approaching Hama in the south.
The attack exposed the fragility and vulnerability of President Bashar al-Assad’s hollowed-out regime as well as his reliance on foreign forces to support it, 13 years after a The popular uprising turned into a civil conflict.
It also points out the weakness of the Syrian army and the military capabilities of HTS. Its fighters launched the offensive on Wednesday and were posing for photos in front of Aleppo’s stronghold in the center of the city of about 2 million people on Friday, while regime soldiers appeared to has disappeared.
HTS is the strongest remaining rebel faction, an offshoot of al-Nusra, a jihadist force that emerged in the chaos of the war in Syria as an al-Qaeda affiliate. It is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who fought for IS in Iraq. He was listed as a terrorist by the US a decade ago and there was a $10 million bounty on his head.
The group has controlled Idlib, home to about 3 million to 4 million people, for six years; much of the population now fled to the area to escape the Assad regime.
Jolani renounced his links to al-Qaeda in 2016 and in recent years has sought to rebrand HTS as a more moderate Islamist movement while consolidating the group’s control in Idlib.
Malik al-Abdeh, a Syrian analyst, said he was also building up the group’s military capabilities – which is believed to have used drones in this week’s attack – while also being clear about its involvement. your hope.
Abdeh said in October, as Jolani planned the attack, HTS contacted other rebel factions in the north belonging to the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, saying he was positioning himself “Conqueror of Aleppo”.
He estimates HTS has up to 30,000 fighters. Its ranks are filled with veterans and religiously motivated fighters, who receive higher salaries than Turkish-backed fighters.
Abdeh added that the Islamist group considers itself the Syrian equivalent of Hizbollah, the Shia movement in Lebanon.
“Jolani wanted to play the role [former Hizbollah leader] Hassan Nasrallah for the Sunnis,” Abdeh said. “For Jolani, it has less to do with ideology and more to do with power. He wants to do whatever it takes to gain power in Syria and has never hidden the fact that he wants to conquer Damascus.”
The fact that Hizbollah was attacked during the 14-month conflict with Israel may have provided Jolani with the opportunity to carry out his actions. Along with Russia and Iran, Hizbollah and other Iran-backed Shia militants are critical to Assad’s ability to quell the uprising.
But since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, Israel has dealt Hizbollah a series of devastating blows in Lebanon, including the killing of Nasrallah, and has repeatedly attacked Iranian and rebel targets. troops in Syria, and warned Assad that he must choose sides.
HTS launched the attack hours after a US-brokered ceasefire to end the conflict in Lebanon between Israel and Hizbollah took effect.
Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute said HTS has spent the past four years providing intensive training and developing higher levels of expertise.
He added that they have “much better command and control lines, specialized drone units, night forces and other types of special forces,” and have developed the ability to produce produce your weapons.
Lister said the rebels could only advance “so far before becoming overstretched” but had succeeded in pushing back “lines of control” to where they were six years ago.
Analysts believe that HTS is coordinating with Turkish-backed rebels in the Syrian National Army, but this force has not yet fully deployed to the battlefield.
The SNA is estimated to have around 40,000 fighters, but it includes different factions based in enclaves in northern Syria, de facto controlled by Türkiye when the Arab state was divided. into patchwork territories.
Ankara’s main goal in Syria is to push Kurdish fighters from the border region, which it sees as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a separatist group that has waged a long-running insurgency. decades of resistance against the Turkish state. This includes Kurdish-dominated forces supported by the US in the fight against Isis and control of parts of northeastern Syria.
Türkiye’s relationship with HTS, which it also considers a terrorist organization, is complex. It serves as Idlib’s final defender from large-scale attacks by regime forces and their Russian backers, while Ankara also controls the border into the province, through which HTS depends on trade and taxes. However, this Islamist group has previously clashed with Turkish-backed rebels.
While Türkiye may not approve of the HTS offensive, it could work in Ankara’s favor if it seeks to exploit the chaos to push back Kurdish rebels, analysts said.
“Türkiye is a major protector of Idlib and a very important backer of Idlib that HTS cannot ignore. But it’s an awkward relationship, with ups and downs,” said Crisis Group’s Dareen Khalifa. “But they don’t see this as an Islamic threat. On the contrary, this is a useful interlocutor, useful in keeping [Syrian] refugees across the border and pursuing jihadist groups.”
Haid Haid, a Syria analyst at Chatham House, said it was unclear whether the group’s rebranding from its jihadist roots was true.
“If you look at their speeches, they are trying to show that they have changed their ways. But there are many problems related to the way they manage the areas they control, which is a centralized structure,” Haid said. “The real test will be when it comes to negotiations to see if they deliver what they say. . . They say they want to be political players, that they are willing to participate. But no one has officially cooperated with them to check whether those claims are true or not.”
Idlib is administered by the civilian-led “Syrian Rescue Government,” under the control of HTS. The United Nations Syria Commission of Inquiry said in a September report that it had documented “torture and executions of detainees” held by HTS in the northwest of the country.
HTS is “by far the most robust, disciplined and financially independent organization,” said Natasha Hall, senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. [opposition] group”.
“They have very firm control over many different economic sectors in Idlib and they have ruled with an iron fist – trying to eliminate any form of dissent,” she said.
After Assad began turning the tide in the civil war with Russian and Iranian backing, including the siege and bombing of Aleppo in 2016, many rebels and their supporters fled to Idlib or was evacuated to the province by the authorities as part of the local militia. ceasefire agreements.
Haid said it is difficult to gauge the level of HTS support because most Syrians “are choosing between bad and worse.”
“For many people, they may not be happy with HTS in those areas, but they will be happy to stay if it means the alternative is the Assad regime,” he said.
