Sinn Féin takes a narrow lead in opinion polls following the Irish general election

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Ireland’s general election had an early surprise on Friday when Sinn Féin, the pro-unification party, emerged with a narrow lead in an opinion poll.

But the country’s main opposition party, which confounded business leaders during the election campaign with promises of policy changes, tax cuts and spending pledges, looks set to struggle. in forming a government, compared to the combined forces of outgoing partners Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. those are just a little behind.

Sinn Féin won 21.1% of first preference votes under Ireland’s proportional representation system, according to polling conducted by Ipsos B&A; The conservative Fine Gael party had 21% and the centrist party Fianna Fáil had 19.5% in the same survey.

Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin’s chief electoral officer, called it an “extraordinary result” for the nationalist party, which won the most first preference votes in the last election in 2020, But has plummeted in the polls over the past year.

“Sinn Féin could emerge from this election as the biggest political party,” he told Irish public broadcaster RTÉ.

The results came as a surprise as the conservative Fine Gael party of Prime Minister Simon Harris – who has been in power since 2011 and is seeking a record fourth consecutive term – fell in opinion polls after a series of mistakes in the election campaign and only came in third place. is about to enter the election. Fianna Fáil was seen as the frontrunner to Sinn Féin from the start.

Long-time rivals before joining forces in government in 2020, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have warned voters about the dangers of removing them for risk of transatlantic trade shock under the new term of Donald Trump.

Ireland has built an economic model to attract foreign investment, including from US technology and pharmaceutical giants, whose huge corporate taxes have created staggering surpluses. Surprise could be at risk if the US president-elect carries out his threats of taxes and tariffs.

Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have vehemently ruled out any alliance with Sinn Féin, which was the mouthpiece of the paramilitary IRA during the Troubles conflict in Northern Ireland. This will complicate their path to power even if they emerge as the country’s most popular party.

Gary Murphy, professor of politics at Dublin City University, said “given these figures, a continuation of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael with someone else looks most likely”.

But Aidan Regan, professor of political economy at University College Dublin, wrote on social media platform X that “It will take four parties to form a stable government” due to growing political divisions of Ireland.

Fianna Fáil’s chief electoral officer, Jack Chambers, appeared calm.

“Everything can go wrong,” he told RTÉ. “It’s now a three-way race.” The poll has a margin of error of 1.4%.

Fine Gael’s Damien English called the party’s result “a very solid performance. . . Hopefully tomorrow will bring us even better news.”

Vote counting begins on Saturday.

Below Ireland proportional representation system, voters rank candidates according to their preferences. Thus, the way lower preference votes are transferred between parties will determine the final result.

According to opinion polling carried out on behalf of The Irish Times, broadcasters RTÉ and TG4 and Trinity College Dublin, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael all won 20% of the second preference vote, ahead of Sinn Féin with 17%. .

Carthy said that if Sinn Féin’s leadership is confirmed, other parties will have an “obligation” to “reflect on the new structure of the Dáil [lower house of parliament]”.

Sinn Féin has campaigned to overthrow the two parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century and bring about sweeping change to end the country’s housing crisis.

But Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be eyeing potential junior partners among the smaller parties in a bid to secure the 88 seats needed to form a government.

The small left-wing Social Democratic Party achieved 5.8%; Labor has 5%. According to the poll, the Green Party, the junior member of the outgoing coalition, has 4%. Independents also voted strongly.

Social Democratic Party leader Holly Cairns was unable to vote after giving birth on election day.