The future of America’s clean energy industry hangs in the balance on election day

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At the mouth of New York’s Hudson River, Norwegian oil and gas producer Equinor is building America’s largest offshore wind port and a potential monument to America’s energy future — or its past This.

As Americans prepare for one of the closest presidential election Throughout the country’s history, investors and executives alike have analyzed election manifestos to determine which industries will gain or lose the most in the next administration. But as election day approaches, one sector is clearly emerging as the most vulnerable to the outcome: renewable energy.

“Harris-Walz’s victory next Tuesday is good news for the offshore wind industry. Sean McGarvey, president of the Construction Trade Association of North America, which studies offshore wind projects, said at a conference this week that a Trump-Vance victory next Tuesday would be terrible. His predictions that Kamala Harris would win the election received unanimous approval.

Donald Trump has vowed to stop offshore wind projects on “day one” if re-elected. He has also pledged to “end” the Disinflation Act, President Joe Biden’s landmark climate law that includes lucrative tax credits to lower the cost of renewable energy and speed decarbonisation. carbon. carbon.

According to Clean Investment Monitor, nearly $450 billion in private investment has flowed into the US energy sector since the IRA was passed. Consulting firm BloombergNEF estimates that repealing the IRA will cause new renewable energy capacity additions to decline by 17% between 2025 and 2035, with offshore wind the hardest hit, falling by 45%.

A recent Goldman Sachs analysis of market outcomes concluded that renewable energy could be the biggest winner under Harris, as well as the biggest loser under Trump, along with other sectors. sensitive to tariffs.

Unlike solar wind and onshore wind, offshore wind requires a federal permit and is most vulnerable to office changes. The Biden administration has ramped up offshore wind deployment, setting an ambitious target of deploying 30GW by 2030 and approving 16GW of commercial-scale projects, up from zero at the start of his presidency. your.

Molly Morris, Equinor’s U.S. president of offshore wind, cited “certainty of commitment” to renewables as the most important factor in promoting offshore wind.

Equinor broke ground on the 73-acre project in June, called the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal. It will serve as the assembly site for the offshore wind project, Empire Wind 1, which qualifies for IRA tax credits and accommodates future offshore wind projects in the region.

Whether Trump or Harris wins next week’s election will have ramifications across corporate America. Bloomberg Intelligence predicts a Trump presidency could reduce capital requirements for US banks, weaken Affordable Care Act subsidies and lower liability shields for Big Tech companies. A Harris presidency would resemble policies set by the Biden administration, increasing oversight of banks, Big Tech and pharmaceutical companies, while continuing to implement IRA and restrictive gas rules. waste.

“I am unapologetic about who we are supporting,” said Sheldon Kimber, chief executive of renewable energy developer Intersect Power, who introduced Harris at a fundraiser earlier this year. The company has begun construction on nearly all of its projects to protect itself from possible changes to tax credit rules.

Fully abolishing the IRA would face major challenges. While the IRA passed without Republican support in Congress, Republican areas of the country remained the main beneficiaries, with more than three-quarters of all Proposals announced in the first year of the law’s passage were all aimed at the party’s districts, according to one report. FT analysis.

In August, 18 Republican lawmakers wrote a letter to Chairman Mike Johnson calling on party leaders to “prioritize business and market certainty” when considering efforts to repeal or reform the IRA .

“We not only see domestic steel and people working, but we also see people working in red and blue states,” said Doreen Harris, president of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority. . “It’s hard to imagine throwing all that away.”

While Trump lifted restrictions on fossil fuel production and capped emissions from power plants and cars, he also extended tax credits for solar, wind and vehicle projects electricity. U.S. renewable energy deployment continues to grow under his presidency.

According to the Energy Information Administration, wind capacity increased 45% between 2016 and 2020, while solar capacity more than doubled. During the debate with Harris, Trump said he was a “big fan” of solar energy.

The column chart of Investment by Quarter ($ billion) shows that U.S. clean energy investment has increased

Analysts say potential Trump policies that pose a high risk to the US transition are tariffs on Chinese goods and changes to the IRA tax credit for electric vehicles, which have became a culture war issue since his presidency. China is a leading producer of clean energy technology and refines the majority of mineral inputs.

The Biden administration has set a goal of reducing emissions by 50% to 52% compared to 2005 levels. The May forecast from Wood Mackenzie predicts a slower energy transition under Trump, resulting in 683 additional emissions million tons of carbon in the energy sector and a projected $322 billion reduction in clean energy investments by 2030.

“[Companies] will go to Europe. They will go to other places. They won’t come here. . . It’s anti-business,” said Elizabeth Yeampierre, executive director of Uprose, a community organization in Brooklyn that supported the Equinor project. Next to her office is a barbershop with a flag that reads: Trump 2024 Take America Back.

A previous version of this story incorrectly estimated how much offshore wind capacity growth would decline if the IRA were abolished. The correct number is 45%.