Tariffs hurt his business. He’s voting for Trump anyway

For nearly 35 years, Wyoming businessman Alan Chadwick ran a business importing clothing from China and selling Western-style clothing to stores catering to “working cowboys” in America.

Now, as former President Donald Trump campaigned on a pledge of 10%-20% tariffs on all goods coming into the country, or border taxes, which would increase to 60% on goods from China, Chadwick is having to rethink his policy drastically. strategy.

The 66-year-old is looking to move production of his products, such as wool button-down shirts and canvas jackets, to India or Pakistan – or possibly shut down his Wyoming Traders business, which has 16 employees, and full retirement.

Chadwick said the tariffs were a “tax on the American people” and warned that the cost of opening a factory in the US for a company like his was unrealistic.

But when he was about to vote, he hopes to set aside worries about tariffs in favor of other priorities, such as illegal immigration and opposition to abortion.

“I will vote for Trump even though he will hurt our company if he does what he says,” he said.

Chadwick’s willingness to ignore Trump’s stance on tariffs is a sign of the conflicting impulses shaping American politics.

The Republican platform has moved America – once the global champion of free trade – toward adopting policies designed to protect American companies and jobs from competition from abroad, despite potential economic constraints.

During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on thousands of products from China — measures that President Joe Biden, despite criticizing them before entering the White House, left in place.

This year, the Republican has made tariff plans a centerpiece of his presidential campaign, calling those mandates “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.”

He argues that his plan – which analysts say could bring average tariffs on imports to their highest level in at least 50 years – would spur job creation, revive manufacturing American exports, increased wages and mobilized billions of dollars from other countries.

“We will become a tax nation,” he said on the way. It wouldn’t be a cost to you, it would be a cost to another country.”

His statement was rejected by most traditional economists, who said the policy would do little to expand jobs in the US, while increasing costs for everyday Americans. and slow growth worldwide.

In the United States, the Tax Foundation predicts tariffs will cost 684,000 jobs overall and reduce GDP by 0.8% — and that doesn’t take into account almost certain retaliation from other countries.

For a typical US household, costs will increase by at least $1,700, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“It’s absurd,” economist Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said of Trump’s promises. “This is not the panacea that everyone is hoping for.”

Despite the warnings, some surveys indicate that Trump’s ideas are gaining traction: a September Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 56% of likely voters support the plans. Republican tariff plan.

Kyle Plesa, a 39-year-old Trump voter in Miami, Florida, said he didn’t think tariffs would have exactly the impact the candidate promised, but that Republicans’ focus on the pitfalls of globalization made him worried.

“People are upset about that and I think at least Trump is addressing that,” he said.

“I would probably rather protect business and pay a little more due to tariffs than deal with the current inflation and tax increases from the left,” he added.

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has criticized Trump’s plan to expand tariffs as a “national sales tax,” pledging a more targeted approach.

But Trump said money raised from tariffs could allow for big tax cuts — at times floating the idea of ​​eliminating income taxes altogether.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s decision to maintain Trump’s Chinese tariffs – and expand them to items such as electric vehicles – has also allowed Republicans to score victories on policy.

Biden has also signed off on other protectionist policies, such as historic government spending to boost manufacturing in sectors like semiconductors and green energy.

He and Harris, like Trump, have opposed a Japanese company’s takeover of U.S. Steel on national security grounds, sending a chill in the business world about foreign investment.

Michael Froman, who served as U.S. trade representative under former President Barack Obama, said Washington’s turn to tools like tariffs and foreign investment restrictions is “probably here to stay.” .

“There is certainly less enthusiasm in pursuing what we might call an aggressive trade agenda in terms of liberalization, openness and reducing barriers,” he said. “We just need to acknowledge that none of these policies are truly free. They all impose some form of trade-off.”

Jason Trice, co-CEO of Jasco, an Oklahoma-based lighting and electronics company that sells to large retailers like Walmart, said his company’s experience shows tariffs could cause damage.

Since 2019, it has paid hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes while transforming its supply chain, moving much of its production from China to places like Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines.

He said these changes made his company less efficient and increased costs by about 10%-15%, which he passed on to retailers, ultimately increasing prices and contributing to unemployment. out inflation.

It’s all taken a toll on his business, with revenue down 25% since 2020 and its employee count decreased, through attrition, from 500 to 350.

“In 50 years of doing business, the Chinese government… has never done anything as damaging to our business as what the Trump administration has done,” Trice said. Tariffs have not helped bring jobs back to America. reduce job opportunities”.

Lucerne International, a Michigan-based auto parts supplier that has manufactured in China for decades, has also spent the last few years adapting to the new climate.

With support from government incentives, the company is now working to open its first factory in its home state by 2026, a plan expected to create more than 300 jobs within four years.

But while the project sounds like the kind of successful “reshoring” that politicians in both parties would like to see, executive director Mary Buchzeiger, a longtime Republican , said that America’s attempt to “build walls” against itself was a mistake. competitor.

“I don’t think tariffs are a long-term solution,” she said.

“All we will do is continue to make ourselves uncompetitive on a global scale.”

Michelle Fleury contributed to this report

North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher gets the inside scoop on the White House race in his twice-weekly US Elections newsletter. Readers in the UK can Register here. Those outside the UK can Register here.