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Roula Khalaf, FT Editor, picks her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The writer is the author of ‘Black Wave’, a distinguished fellow at Columbia University’s Institute of Global Politics and a contributing editor to the FT
A month after the start of Israel’s multi-pronged military campaign of shock and awe against Hizbollah and Lebanon, the Lebanese can barely comprehend the enormity of what has happened to their country.
A quarter of Lebanon is currently under an Israeli evacuation order. Nearly a quarter of the population is on the move, sleeping in schools, on the streets, in rented homes or hotel rooms – whatever they can find or afford. After two weeks of intense shelling of Beirut’s densely populated southern suburbs, there have been a few quiet nights. But drones buzzed loudly and non-stop over the city. War broke out in the south and the Bekaa Valley. More than 2,300 people died, many of them women and children.
Complete town was flattened to the ground. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened to turn Lebanon into another Gaza and told United Nations peacekeepers deployed in the south to get out of the way. Meanwhile, the man who strangled Lebanese politics for two decades, admired and hated in equal measure, Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, is dead.
In this spiral, Lebanon faces many challenges. First, social pressure is huge. The evacuation of more than a million people from areas attacked by Israel has brought people in different parts of the capital face to face with each other.
There is an overwhelming feeling of solidarity and civil society has begun to take action to shelter and feed refugees in places where the state has faltered. But in a country in crisis – without a president for two years, only an interim cabinet, a collapsing economy and home to more than a million Syrian refugees – the ability to sustain the effort that will be limited. The friction of living in tight quarters in densely populated areas is causing social and sectarian tensions.
The country feels it is being punished for a decision Hizbollah made on its own, tying Lebanon’s fate to Gaza and dragging the country into war. But the brunt of Israel’s wrath is on the Shia community. Their towns and neighborhoods are the environments in which Hizbollah operates, even if many Shias do not support or belong to Hizbollah. Israeli attacks also targeted other areas, where Israel accused them of targeting disbanded Hizbollah members. on monday at least 21 evacuees from the south were killed in northern Lebanon during one such strike, deep in the Christian heartland, including five women and two children. The United Nations has called for an investigation.
Netanyahu may believe that this will spur the rest of Lebanon to rebel against Hizbollah or the Shia – but that is a recipe for civil war. Internal political challenges are huge and delicate. The majority of Lebanese oppose Hizbollah. But while its opponents and even allies see one opportunity To limit its power, no one in Lebanon wants to ride Israeli tanks to victory over another political party or community.
That lesson was learned in 1982 during Israel’s last large-scale invasion. And now Lebanon, which has witnessed the devastation of Gaza over the past year, is extremely wary of Israel’s intentions. Additionally, although Hizbollah’s leadership has been beheaded, they have not yet raised the white flag. Its patron, Iran, still looms in the background.
Hizbollah has never been Lebanon’s only problem – it is part of a system of corruption that the country has helped maintain. The country’s bickering politicians are yet to unite in the face of crisis. The presidential election is high on the agenda but no agreement has yet been reached and there are differing opinions on timing. Elect someone quickly to negotiate ceasefire terms? Or wait for a ceasefire to avoid any doubts about the legitimacy of the election?
There is a lot of international diplomacy but no ceasefire; and probably won’t be before the US election. This brings us to some of Israel’s war goals, in addition to the declared unattainable goal of destroying Hizbollah.
Israel has talked about limited ground incursions and has insisted it will not take over southern Lebanon. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the army would raze every village along the border. Some have already been razed. The goal appears to be to create a depopulation buffer zone several kilometers deep inside Lebanon, which Israel can monitor from its own territory. Ostensibly, Israel wants to keep Hizbollah away from its borders. But that also means no one in these villages is going home any time soon. The war continues and its impact on the south and all of Lebanon will be lasting.
