If Eric Adams drops out, New York could see a grudge match to replace him

the investigate and the resignations surrounding the New York City mayor Eric Adams has multiplied almost non-stop over the past year. All the while, the disclaimer was consistent whenever I asked his potential political challengers and their advisers about their plans to challenge the mayor in the 2025 campaign. : Only if Adams himself were indicted.

Well, that warning fell apart this morning when Damian Williams, The United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, announced a five-count federal indictment against Adams. the fee including bribery, wire fraud and conspiracy to receive campaign contributions from foreign nationals. The charges largely stem from his victory in the 2021 City Hall race, when prosecutors allege he received campaign donations and travel benefits from entity linked to the Turkish government in exchange for, as mayor, pressuring New York City Fire Department officials to approve occupancy permits. for Türkiye’s new consulate building has not passed a fire safety inspection. If those allegations are true then both are very on brand for Adams—combining his long run Love for international cruises and flashy with a background in law enforcement—and yet sadly petty and stupid.

The city’s history of political corruption is long and ostentatious, but this is a first: No sitting mayor has been formally charged with criminal acts. Adams emphasized that all allegations are “completely false.” In a short video released later Wednesday night New York Times bankrupt Upon learning of the impending indictment, the mayor said he would “fight these injustices with all my strength and spirit.” He is a formidable fighter willing to take almost any angle on defense. Adams already has it citing racism as a possible motive to criticize his administration; he also has allude to the far-fetched idea that the federal investigations are part of a Biden administration plot to exact revenge for the mayor’s criticism of the president’s border policies.

Fighting criminal charges will be difficult for Adams, but the trial process will be slow. Moving faster, harder and well underway is the political battle to keep our jobs. He lost his police commissioner and school principal recent resignation; Many top employees can now head for the exits. Rev. Al Sharpton, an ally of Adams, gave a worrying signal, with time report he has “expressed concern” that the mayor’s turmoil could become a drag on other Democrats this fall, including Kamala Harris.

Calls for Adams to resign are growing, but so far at least, they have come mainly from Adams’s declared re-election opponents or his longtime opponents, including Mrs. congressman. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Working Families Party. The main player to watch is the Governor Kathy Hochul, who had a friendly relationship with Adams but often miscalculated the city’s political dynamics; senator Chuck Schumer, who had a close but mostly distant relationship with Adams (although Schumer’s response to the indictment was quite disturbing: “No one is above the law, not even the mayor of New York City”); and Democratic majority leader in the House of Representatives Hakeem Jeffries. Jeffries is very busy right now, marshaling campaign troops to try to win New York’s congressional race in November, but he and Adams, both from Brooklyn, have different personalities and policies. Politicians are very different, and they have different views. past conflicts.

City charter regulations that if a mayor leaves office early, they will be replaced by the city’s public advocate. This means the Democratic Party Jumaane Williams will temporarily move to the top position, with a special election needed within about 90 days. That’s when the real fun begins, and that’s why the most reasonable and declared opponents have quickly moved from saying “Only if Adams himself is indicted” to “If Adams quits.” “event”. Some would have been better off if Adams had departed early; some want him to stay in office but refuse to run for re-election next year. Here’s who to watch and what calculations they’re making right now:

Popular in 2013

For a long time, Christine Quinn appears to be on track to become the city’s first female mayor. But she was caught up in the backlash against the tycoon Mayor’s three terms Michael Bloomberg and lose Bill de Blasio. Recently, Quinn has been doing a great job running a nonprofit called Win, providing shelter and services to homeless women and children. But 11 years is a very long time for city voters.

2021 was a near miss

Kathryn Garcia lost to Adams by just 7,197 votes, or less than 1%, in the 2021 Democratic primary, the decisive contest in the New York mayoral election. That narrow margin and the fact that Garcia’s technocratic image would seem to be a welcome antidote to Adams’ whole play make her a logical candidate. However, Garcia is said to be very happy in his current job as state executive in the Hochul administration and does not want to run for re-election.

The 2025 field is available

Brad Lander whose strongest recent track record is winning actual city elections—three terms as Brooklyn city councilman, followed by a citywide contest in 2021 to become a controller. His campaign was telling New York Times in July it is expected to have 3 million USD after the expected matching amount; On the other hand, Lander may be too far removed for some voters, and his efforts to show nuance regarding Israel and Gaza may not please anyone. Zellnor Myrie young (37) and full of energy; he is also little known outside his Brooklyn state senate district. Jessica Ramos is young (39 years old), charismatic, and better known outside her state senate district of Queens. Scott Stringer, at 64, is a veteran: former state representative, borough president and city controller. Stringer is running for mayor for the second time; the last, in 2021, was derailed by allegations of sexual misconduct. (He does refuse any misconduct.)

Possible interim mayor

Jumaane Williams is a left-wing activist turned politician. Williams, also from Brooklyn, spent two terms on the City Council before winning a 2019 special election to become a public advocate. Ninety days as interim mayor will give Williams a huge platform.

Black horses

Jessica Tisch held senior information technology jobs in the de Blasio administration; She is now Adams’ sanitation commissioner and is leading a major overhaul of how the city collects trash. She is a member of the Tisch family of the Loews Group, so she would presumably have access to the money needed for the campaign and be known to the city’s business community. But Tisch is truly an unknown to voters. Ritchie Torres, however, is very good at self-promotion. Now a 36-year-old congressman representing the South Bronx district, Torres is a powerful and sometimes divisive presence. “He is ambitious, Latino and gay, and real estate financiers and Jews love him,” one Democratic official told me.

The disgraced governor is in hiding

Last November, shortly after FBI agents suddenly confronted Adams and confiscated his electronic devices, his allies Andrew Cuomo took advantage of a special election, tells me how the compressed campaign schedule will highlight Cuomo’s strengths: nearly $8 million in campaign cash and name recognition much older than his putative opponents. Those advantages remain in place, and since then, Cuomo has given numerous speeches at Black churches around the city, keeping himself in front of a key voting group, especially in a competitive race. elections are likely to have low voter turnout.

However, some of the recent reasons for Cuomo’s famous name recognition are not helpful. in 2021he retired as governor under a series of sexual harassment allegations (all of which he continues to deny). And just two weeks ago, Cuomo testified before a congressional committee investigating his handling of the COVID pandemic; His administration has been criticized for concealing the true number of deaths in nursing homes (Cuomo disputes this explanation). However, if he runs for mayor, Cuomo will be the favorite. Maybe. “I don’t know,” said a former ally of the governor. “The city has really changed. Are all the white voters who love Mario and Andrew still here? And would Black voters support him against a Black candidate?

The disgraced governor’s sworn enemy

This brings us to Tish James. She has previously said that mayor is a job she dreams of one day holding. James planned to run in 2021. But in 2018, scandal forced Eric Schneiderman left as state attorney general, so James ran — with key backing from Cuomo — and won, which helped pave the way for Adams, her fellow Brooklynite, in the race next mayor. At the very least, the relationship between James and Cuomo has changed. He blame her for using sexual harassment allegations to get him out of Albany for her own run for governor (a motive she denies, although James ran briefly in 2021 before giving the race to Hochul). The showdown between James and Cuomo for City Hall would be irresistible drama. But it’s hard to see James giving up his AG perch. However, if Adams drops out and Cuomo gets in, James will be under significant pressure to make a bid. “I think,” said one of the city’s best-connected political players, “she’s the only person who can beat Andrew.”