A plate of nigiri sushi.
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Sushi, onigiri and yakitori don — Rice is the main ingredient in many iconic Japanese dishes, but the country is facing its biggest shortage in decades.
Japan has been struggling with a rice shortage in recent months due to bad weather and an increase in tourists, coupled with the country’s rice rationing policy.
“During the summer of 2024, Japan struggled with a shortage of edible rice that led to empty supermarkets as demand outstripped production over the past three years, depleting stocks to their lowest level in more than 20 years,” United States Department of Agriculture wrote in a report released last week. Consumers have also stocked up on extra rice in preparation for Japan’s typhoon season and major earthquake warnings, the USDA added.
In August, Supermarkets are said to regularly run out of white rice. and limit purchases to one bag per person. Local media NHK is partly credited with The lack of tourists has pushed up demand for sushi and other rice-based dishes. The price of Rice prices reached 16,133 yen ($112.67) per 60kg in Augustup 3% from the previous month and 5% higher year-to-date.
Japan private rice warehouse stood at 1.56 million tons in June, marking a multi-year low, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. In addition to Japan preparing for potential natural disasters, MFAA also said that the increased demand for rice is due to the influx of tourists increasing the demand for food services.
Japan’s rice economy remains largely isolated from world markets.
Joseph Glauber
International Food Policy Research Institute
Estimated tourist rice consumption has increased from 19,000 tonnes between July 2022 and June 2023 to 51,000 tonnes between July 2023 and June 2024, said Oscar Tjakra, senior analyst at global food and agriculture bank Rabobank.
Tjakra noted that although tourist consumption doubled, it was still relatively small compared to Japan’s annual domestic rice consumption of more than 7 million tons.
Japan has received record 17.8 million visitors in the first half of the year, much higher than pre-pandemic levels. That trend is still continuing. 3.3 million tourists arrived in Julythe highest level ever recorded according to Japan’s tourism statistics.
Tjakra said Japan’s edible rice output is also falling as older rice farmers retire and fewer young people take up the profession. A series of heat waves and droughts in the second half of last year also hurt crops, the analyst added.
While smaller rice harvests and foreign demand for sushi played a role, the country’s rice policy remained the underlying factor contributing to the overall supply crunch, said Joseph Glauber, a senior fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute.
“Japan’s rice economy remains largely isolated from the world market,” Glauber told CNBC.
Japan apply 778% tax rate on imported rice to protect rice farmersWhile Japan is committed to importing a minimum of about 682,000 tons of rice per year under its World Trade Organization obligations, this rice is largely inaccessible to Japanese consumers and is mainly used for processing and animal feed.
Rabobank’s Tjakra observed that rice exports from Japan also increased sixfold from 2014 to 2022 to nearly 30,000 tonnes.
Higher rice prices pushed Japan’s headline inflation higher in August, up 2.8% year-on-year due to rising energy and food costs. Rice and chocolate prices were among the biggest drivers of food price increases.
