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A new rail link is needed to prevent capacity between Britain’s biggest cities running out within a decade, a new study has warned.
A review by private sector experts including Arup and Mace has concluded that the 80km line could be built faster than the HS2 line cancelled by chancellor Rishi Sunak last year — and at a lower cost.
The report said that without the new line, “travel demand on the London-Manchester corridor will exceed the line’s maximum capacity over the next decade”.
The study, published in Manchester on Friday, added that the M6 motorway, which runs from the Midlands to the Scottish border, also faces “similar projections”.
“Doing nothing on this corridor is not a viable option, from either an economic or operational perspective,” the report warned, adding that the move was necessary to spur growth in the country’s chronically underperforming regional cities.
The report follows Sunak’s decision to cancel the HS2 high-speed rail link north between Manchester and Birmingham in October last year, citing rising costs and poor management.
Since then, business and political leaders in the Midlands and North have warned that the decline in capacity on the west coast remains an unresolved issue.
In May, the National Infrastructure Commission forecast a surge in rail demand to Manchester and Birmingham in the coming years, with its chairman Sir John Armitt warning that without an alternative to HS2 the development of cities in the region will be hampered.
Armitt said doing “nothing” between Birmingham and Manchester was not a long-term solution, adding: “Without a better rail link between these two areas, economic opportunities will be lost and the full benefits of the first phase of HS2 will not be realised.”
A group chaired by former HS2 chairman Sir David Higgins and led by Arup, commissioned by the mayors of Greater Manchester and the West Midlands, has been looking at routes and funding models for an alternative route.
The study concluded that a lower-spec railway, built in two stages — from Lichfield in the West Midlands to Crewe, then to High Legh in Cheshire — could use land previously bought for HS2, recouping £2bn in sunk costs.
The study suggests the line could be built for between 60 and 75 per cent of the original cost of HS2, although it did not give a specific figure. The previous Conservative government said scrapping the northern section of HS2 would save £36bn.
The new route would also free up space on the existing west coast line for freight, avoiding the need for trains to use the notorious Castlefield corridor in central Manchester, a bottleneck in the region.
As the government looks to save costs ahead of its first Budget next month, the report recommends a form of public-private partnership as a way to reduce public and investment risks.
The project could be integrated with other projects over the next 20 or 30 years, providing certainty to the construction industry, reducing costs and attracting investment from the private sector.
Some investors have declared the prospect attractive, the report added.
The proposal comes as the government looks to deliver on a campaign promise to boost growth while seeking savings this year to close what it says is a A £22bn ‘black hole’ inherited in public finance.
The report calls for a new vehicle to be set up in partnership with mayors to oversee further feasibility studies, to protect all land originally protected as part of HS2’s northern section rather than selling it off, and suggests appealing to international investors.
Andy Burnham, the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, said if the UK did not “put in place a plan soon” for rail capacity and connectivity between the North and the Midlands, the west coast rail corridor and the M6 would become “a major barrier to economic growth in the UK”.
HS2 does not need to be restored to do that, he said, “but we need decisions soon to end the uncertainty”.
