Shinjiro Koizumi could be the leading candidate in Japan’s leadership election

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party will elect a new leader in September and with it the country’s next prime minister.

With nearly a dozen candidates set to enter the race, many analysts have described the contest as competitive and unpredictable. The unusually wide-open contest is the result of efforts within the party to eliminate “factional politics,” although factional ties appear to remain strong. Factions are small, organized groups within the LDP with their own leadership and policy goals.

One potential candidate is Shinjiro Koizumi, who will hold a press conference declared candidacy on September 6.

The 43-year-old son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is expected to be the youngest candidate in the contest. Along with 49-year-old Takayuki Kobayashi, who has already announced his candidacy, the two candidates are seen as choices for a generational shift in the party’s election.

Koizumi, a former environment minister, is known for his support of renewable energy. He has made headlines for surfing near Fukushima to help quell concerns about water safety following the discharge of treated wastewater as well as First cabinet minister to take parental leave in Japan.

While the public is waiting for official announcements from potential candidates, Koizumi is so far the most likely frontrunner, said Rintaro Nishimura, a Japan-based analyst at The Asia Group.

“His father’s legacy as president/prime minister of the popular reformist populist LDP and the fact that he is seen as scandal-free and a fresh face compared to other candidates, especially in the current climate, makes him an attractive candidate,” he said.

Nishimura said Koizumi has a good chance of winning votes from both LDP members as well as grassroots members across Japan.

The winner of the LDP election will need to secure a majority of votes. If no candidate secures a majority, the top two vote-getters will go into a second round of voting.

“This time, as LDP members look ahead to next year’s general election, many of them are worried about their survival — whether they can keep their seats, especially younger LDP members who have served fewer terms,” Nishimura said.

“I don’t think the safe choice this time is the safe choice, the issue is which candidate can win the general election, and in that case, a favorite, like Koizumi, will of course be one of the favorite candidates.”

Koizumi has also emerged as one of the most popular choice among the public. A poll by the local newspaper Asahi Shimbun showed Koizumi tied with Shigeru Ishiba in national popularity with 21 percent each. However, Koizumi had the most support among LDP supporters polled with 28 percent compared to Ishiba’s 23 percent, according to the poll.

But many questions remain about Koizumi’s experience and policy outlook.

Tobias Harris, founder of consulting firm Japan Foresight, said in a recent online poststhat while Koizumi has “the greatest potential to fundamentally change the race”, his resume is thin. He has never held a senior party leadership position or the highest cabinet post.

“He is an effective campaigner and has tackled many issues, but his foreign policy experience is limited, which could be a particular weakness in an LDP leadership election that is already being influenced by the US presidential election and the prospect of a second Trump administration,” Harris wrote.

Little is also known about his economic policies.

“As far as I know, Koizumi has not commented on BOJ policy normalization,” Harris told CNBC.

“We can make certain inferences — he cares about fiscal policy and deficits, he has ties to [former defense chief] Shigeru Ishiba and others have criticized Abenomics — but I don’t think we know for sure. The party as a whole tends to favor normalization, except for the right wing.”

It is still too early for Koizumi to take the top job, said Japan strategist Nicholas Smith from CLSA.

“It’s all about experience. He’s been elected five times. That’s the minimum acceptable,” he said.

“Also, he has a small cabinet post in charge of nuclear safety, but it’s not a high-ranking post. People will say, you can’t be prime minister if you haven’t done other jobs.”

The LDP election will be held on September 27.