Is an agreement possible?

Earlier this week, on live television, the mother of one of the Israeli hostages held in Gaza made a deal to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar: Release all 109 hostages — dead and alive — in exchange for the children of Israeli security chiefs.

But Ditza Or, whose son Avinatan was kidnapped from the Nova music festival in the October 7 attack, isn’t pushing Israeli leaders to sign a ceasefire — she’s pushing them to fight Hamas harder.

Ms Or and several other pro-war hostage families are unlikely to be allies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is now under intense pressure from his US ally, his security chiefs and even his own defense minister to be more flexible and reach a deal.

Leaked reports of a recent phone call with his most important ally suggest that US President Joe Biden told the Israeli leader to “stop lying” to him, suggesting that Netanyahu did not want a deal at all.

As talks continue in Cairo this week aimed at narrowing the gap between Israel and Hamas, leaks to the Israeli media suggest the gap between Netanyahu and his negotiators and defense minister is widening.

According to Dana Weiss, chief political analyst for Israel’s Channel 12 TV, the prime minister has privately accused key negotiators and the security chief of being “weak,” portraying himself as the sole defender of Israel’s security interests.

They have different approaches to the urgency of a deal, she said, and one reason for that is the different levels of responsibility each side feels.

“The military feels guilty about October 7 and feels a moral obligation to get the hostages back,” she explained. “Our government, our ministers and especially Prime Minister Netanyahu do not feel personally responsible for October 7, they blame the military entirely and therefore do not feel the same sense of urgency to make a deal.”

Mr Netanyahu said bringing the hostages back was his second priority in the war – after victory over Hamas, and stressed his commitment to protecting Israel’s security “in the face of enormous pressure at home and abroad”.

The man who once cherished the image of Israel’s “Mr. Security” appears to be reprising that image, 10 months after that image was shattered by the October 7 attack.

A key point in the talks is whether Israeli forces will withdraw from a strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt, known as the Philadelphia Corridor.

Mr Netanyahu appears to be sticking to his “red line” of maintaining an Israeli military presence there, citing Israel’s security needs, despite leaks suggesting his negotiators believe this is “unacceptable”.

Senior Hamas figure Hussam Badran told the BBC on Friday that the group would not accept anything less than an Israeli withdrawal, and that Mr Netanyahu’s stance showed he did not want a deal, but was “being manipulated”.[ing] through useless rounds of negotiations to gain time”.

Hamas is said to be facing difficult questions about what Gaza or the Palestinians gained from the October attacks, after more than 10 months of bombing and displacement.

The group sees a prisoner swap compromise as more acceptable than accepting a continued Israeli military presence in Gaza and checkpoints for people moving north.

Egypt is also expected to reject any deal that does not include Palestinian leadership on the other side of their shared border.

Hamas has not formally joined the current round of talks, and many believe Mr Sinwar’s priority is to continue the Gaza War in order to spark a regional conflict, which would put enormous pressure on Israel and – it is argued – force its prime minister to make further concessions to end the war.

The risk of a broader escalation — amid threats from Iran and Hezbollah — is one reason Washington is pushing so hard for a deal. The US is three months away from the presidential election, and the Biden administration believes a ceasefire in Gaza would help calm the region.

Political analyst Dana Weiss said Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant agreed that if Israel does not go down the path of reaching a ceasefire — even a temporary one — it will inevitably go down the path of escalation.

“For the prime minister, it was the exact opposite,” she said. “He said, ‘No, if we go ahead and surrender Sinwar now, Hezbollah and Iran will see that we are weak. We have to do our job with Hamas, to prevent war.’”

But she said Mr Netanyahu also had domestic political motives for delaying the talks. Among those motives was the fact that, after months of low approval ratings, he is now rising in the polls.

Several recent polls have placed him at the top of the list of respondents who intend to vote, given both his right-wing Likud party and his personal record as leader — results that would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.

All eyes are now on the next scheduled talks, scheduled for Sunday. Meanwhile, Egypt has reportedly agreed to share Israel’s latest proposal on the border area with Hamas.

Mediators insist a deal is still possible, but hopes from all sides appear to be fading.

After meeting the Israeli prime minister today, Ella Ben Ami, the daughter of another Israeli hostage, said she looked Benjamin Netanyahu straight in the eye and asked him to promise to do everything and not give up until they returned.

She said it was “heavy and difficult to think that this is not going to happen soon”.

Time is running out for these negotiations: for the people of Gaza, for the Israeli hostages still held in the tunnels, for the entire region.

But for Mr Sinwar and Mr Netanyahu, perhaps the most powerful weapon they have in this fight is time.