Will Donald Trump win? As I write this in late October, no one knows for sure whether 2024 will be a repeat of 2020 or 2016 — or whether it will manifest as yet another election scenario none of us have ever experienced before. . But we know a few things for sure.
First, the total number of votes from vote by mail and early voting suggests that, unlike 2016, this won’t be one the election had low voter turnout.
Second, Trump 2024 is not Trump 2016 at all. This means that the former president is no longer a symptom or an exception of the Republican Party; He To be The Republican Party and the Republican Party are he. Republican House Speaker, Mike Johnson, used to be effective installed of Trump for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. And while some senators, like the Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, may like lower their association with Trump, any Republican who was truly anti-Trump was kicked out of the party. All that’s left is a sea of mini-Trumps, catchphrases, and pale imitations of the OG.
Third, although many Democrats are living in desperate fear that this cycle will be another 2016, they should remember that Kamala HarrisThe campaign of unlike Hillary Clinton‘S. Harris is running a highly targeted ground game, focused on eliminating Republican women who can’t stand Trump and the few undecideds who somehow remain in line fence. fence. Will it work? That I cannot say. After all, she is running as a woman of color in a still-deep country racism And gender discrimination. But if she doesn’t win, it’s not for lack of trying.
Take, for example, her reckless media attack: Over the past few weeks, the vice president has dared to puncture the right-wing media ecosystem. She sat down for a long time Unpleasant interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier—who interrupted Harris at least “38 times in 27 minutes,” according to CNN—and is are said to be negotiating appears above Joe Roganpodcast by. Meanwhile, her companion, Tim Walz, has been enabled Fox News Sunday twice in the past three weeks. (Oh, and the Harris thing completely destroyed Trump in his first and only debate.) All of this, as one swing-state member of Congress told me, was “the complete opposite” of the unconvincing way Clinton campaigned. in 2016. “I’ve been through both,” they said. “Like night and day.”
More recently, on Sunday, Harris spent her morning with two different churches in the Atlanta area. And on Monday, she’ll take on another campaign with anti-Trump Republicans Liz Cheney, Who regroup with Harris earlier this month in Wisconsin and will co-host “moderated discussions” with Veep in the suburbs Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee.
For his part, Trump is not (at least not yet) crisscrossing the country with a series of campaign stops in battleground states, as he did in 2016. According to ABC NewsBy this time that year, Trump had made 26 campaign rallies, while Clinton had only made 19; Trump went to 12 states while Clinton only went to 8 states. Clinton’s biggest scandal: Ms neglected to visit both Georgia and Wisconsin — and spent just a single day in Arizona — after winning the Democratic nomination in June. That might have affected her -12 reviews were unfavorable at the time. Harris, on the other hand, is currently sitting in a comfortable position. +5%according to a new AP poll, and she better price about the economy more than Trump.
